Method and system of dynamic model selection for time series forecasting

    公开(公告)号:US11663493B2

    公开(公告)日:2023-05-30

    申请号:US16262208

    申请日:2019-01-30

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    CPC classification number: G06N3/126 G06F16/285 G06N5/04

    Abstract: Forecasts are provided based on dynamic model selection for different sets of time series. A model comprises a transformation and a prediction algorithm. Given a time series, a transformation is selected for the time series and a prediction algorithm is selected to make a forecast based on the transformed time series. Sets of time series are distinguished from each other based on diverse sparsities, temporal scales and other time series attributes. A model is dynamically selected based on time series attributes to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting computation time. The dynamic model selection is based on the creation of a meta-model from historical sets of historical time series.

    FORECASTING BASED ON BERNOULLI UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION

    公开(公告)号:US20220180227A1

    公开(公告)日:2022-06-09

    申请号:US17334730

    申请日:2021-05-29

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: This disclosure relates to predictions based on a Bernoulli uncertainty characterization used in selecting between different prediction models. An example system is configured to perform operations including determining a prediction by a first prediction model. The first prediction model is associated with a loss function. The system is also configured to determine whether the prediction is associated with the first prediction model or a second prediction model based on a joint loss function. The second prediction model is associated with a likelihood function, and the joint loss function is based on the loss function and the likelihood function. The system is further configured to indicate the prediction to the user in response to determining that the prediction is associated with the first prediction model. If the prediction is associated with the second prediction model, the system may prevent indicating the prediction to the user.

    Finite rank deep kernel learning for robust time series forecasting and regression

    公开(公告)号:US11379726B2

    公开(公告)日:2022-07-05

    申请号:US16212601

    申请日:2018-12-06

    Applicant: INTUIT INC.

    Abstract: Certain aspects of the present disclosure provide techniques for performing finite rank deep kernel learning. In one example, a method for performing finite rank deep kernel learning includes receiving a training dataset; forming a set of embeddings by subjecting the training data set to a deep neural network; forming, from the set of embeddings, a plurality of dot kernels; combining the plurality of dot kernels to form a composite kernel for a Gaussian process; receiving live data from an application; and predicting a plurality of values and a plurality of uncertainties associated with the plurality of values simultaneously using the composite kernel.

    Extending finite rank deep kernel learning to forecasting over long time horizons

    公开(公告)号:US11682069B2

    公开(公告)日:2023-06-20

    申请号:US16881172

    申请日:2020-05-22

    Applicant: INTUIT INC.

    CPC classification number: G06Q40/02 G06N3/047 G06N3/084 G06N20/00

    Abstract: In one embodiment a finite rank deep kernel learning method includes: receiving a training dataset; forming a plurality of training data subsets from the training dataset; for each respective training data subset of the plurality of training data subsets: calculating a subset-specific loss based on a loss function and the respective training data subset; and optimizing a model based on the subset-specific loss; determining a set of embeddings based on the optimized model; determining, based on the set of embeddings, a plurality of dot kernels; combining the plurality of dot kernels to form a composite kernel for a Gaussian process; receiving live data from an application; and predicting a plurality of values and a plurality of uncertainties associated with the plurality of values simultaneously using the composite kernel.

    Indicating forecasts of invoice payments

    公开(公告)号:US11544753B2

    公开(公告)日:2023-01-03

    申请号:US17115097

    申请日:2020-12-08

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: This disclosure relates to forecasting when and whether an invoice is to be paid and indicating such forecasts to a user. An example system is configured to perform operations including determining, by a classification model, a first confidence as to whether an invoice is to be paid, determining, by a regression model associated with the classification model, a first time associated with a second confidence as to when the invoice is likely to be paid, and indicating, to a user, whether the invoice is to be paid based on the first confidence and the first time when the invoice is likely to be paid based on the second confidence. The regression model may include one or more gradient boosted trees to determine the first time. Different times associated with different confidences can be determined by different gradient boosted trees, with the specific tree corresponding to the associated confidence.

    HIERARCHICAL DEEP NEURAL NETWORK FORECASTING OF CASHFLOWS WITH LINEAR ALGEBRAIC CONSTRAINTS

    公开(公告)号:US20220351002A1

    公开(公告)日:2022-11-03

    申请号:US17862494

    申请日:2022-07-12

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: Systems and methods for forecasting cashflows across one or more accounts of a user disclosed. One example method may include retrieving a data set for each of a plurality of accounts from a database, constructing a graph including a plurality of nodes linked together by a multitude of edges, wherein each node identifies a time series value corresponding to one of the accounts, and each edge indicates a time series value of a corresponding set of transactions occurring between a corresponding pair of accounts, determining a plurality of constraints, determining a specified loss function based on the plurality of constraints, back-propagating a derivative of the specified loss function into a deep neural network (DNN) to determine a set of neural network parameters, forecasting, using the DNN, a time sequence for one or more of the nodes and one or more of the edges, and providing the forecasted time sequences to the user.

    QUANTILE HURDLE MODELING SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR SPARSE TIME SERIES PREDICTION APPLICATIONS

    公开(公告)号:US20220245526A1

    公开(公告)日:2022-08-04

    申请号:US17163018

    申请日:2021-01-29

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: A server computer may receive and process a plurality of time series data to generate sparse datasets based on sparsity levels. The server computer applies a time series forecasting model to each respective subset of previous data points of the sparse datasets increasingly at the first time granularity to generate a set of prediction values and a set of residuals; applies a regression model to the set of the prediction residuals to generate a set of adjusted residuals for the sparse datasets; and generates a visualized explanation based on the set of the prediction values and the set of adjusted residuals for one or more of the sparse datasets.

    INDICATING FORECASTS OF INVOICE PAYMENTS

    公开(公告)号:US20220180413A1

    公开(公告)日:2022-06-09

    申请号:US17115097

    申请日:2020-12-08

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: This disclosure relates to forecasting when and whether an invoice is to be paid and indicating such forecasts to a user. An example system is configured to perform operations including determining, by a classification model, a first confidence as to whether an invoice is to be paid, determining, by a regression model associated with the classification model, a first time associated with a second confidence as to when the invoice is likely to be paid, and indicating, to a user, whether the invoice is to be paid based on the first confidence and the first time when the invoice is likely to be paid based on the second confidence. The regression model may include one or more gradient boosted trees to determine the first time. Different times associated with different confidences can be determined by different gradient boosted trees, with the specific tree corresponding to the associated confidence.

    FORECASTING BASED ON BERNOULLI UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION

    公开(公告)号:US20220180232A1

    公开(公告)日:2022-06-09

    申请号:US17115297

    申请日:2020-12-08

    Applicant: Intuit Inc.

    Abstract: This disclosure relates to predictions based on a Bernoulli uncertainty characterization used in selecting between different prediction models. An example system is configured to perform operations including determining a prediction by a first prediction model. The first prediction model is associated with a loss function. The system is also configured to determine whether the prediction is associated with the first prediction model or a second prediction model based on a joint loss function. The second prediction model is associated with a likelihood function, and the joint loss function is based on the loss function and the likelihood function. The system is further configured to indicate the prediction to the user in response to determining that the prediction is associated with the first prediction model. If the prediction is associated with the second prediction model, the system may prevent indicating the prediction to the user.

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