Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data and insulin delivery data are used to generate more reliable projected alarms related to a projected glucose levels. A memory stores endogenous data related to measurements of glucose level in a patient, and also stores exogenous data, such as insulin on board, both of which are used by a processor to create projected alarms. Profiles of CGM data are created for use in tuning patient-specific insulin data, such at basal rate, carb ratio, and insulin sensitivity. A processor searches for patterns in the data profiles and if found, recommended changes to patient-specific insulin data are provided to permit more accurate control over a patient's glucose levels.