A mechanism is provided for weighted history allocation prediction. For each member in a plurality of members in a lower level cache, an associated reference counter is initialized to an initial value based on an operation type that caused data to be allocated to a member location of the member. For each access to the member in the lower level cache, the associated reference counter is incremented. Responsive to a new allocation of data to the lower level cache and responsive to the new allocation of data requiring the victimization of another member in the lower level cache, a member of the lower level cache is identified that has a lowest reference count value in its associated reference counter. The member with the lowest reference count value in its associated reference counter is then evicted.