A congestion estimating apparatus includes an area dividing unit that divides a moving image into partial areas. A movement information determining unit determines whether there is movement, and a person information determining unit determines whether there is a person, in each partial area. A staying determining unit determines a state for each partial area. The staying determining unit determines the state as a movement area in which there is a movement of person when there is movement and there is a person; and determines the state as a noise area when there is movement and there is no person; and determines the state as a staying area in which there is a person who is staying when there is no movement and there is a person; and determines the state as a background area in which there is no person when there is no movement and there no person.