Improved hardware throughput can be achieved when a hardware device is saturated with IO jobs. Throughput can be estimated based on the quantifiable characteristics of incoming IO jobs. When IO jobs are received a time cost for each job can be estimated and stored in memory. The estimates can be used to calculate the total time cost of in-flight IO jobs and a determination can be made as to whether the hardware device is saturated based on completion times for IO jobs. Over time the time cost estimates for IO jobs can be revised based on a comparison between the estimated time cost for an IO job and the actual time cost for the IO job using aggregate IO job completion sequences.