A control system for an engine that includes a turbocharger includes a restriction estimation module and an engine protection module. The restriction estimation module estimates restriction of airflow through an air filter of the engine based on a comparison between measured and modeled temperatures at an outlet of a compressor of the turbocharger. The engine protection module, based on the estimated airflow restriction, at least one of controls turbocharger boost, controls turbocharger airflow, controls a fueling rate of the engine, and generates a warning signal for a driver of a vehicle.