An occlusion prediction graphics processing system and method are presented in accordance with embodiments of the present invention. An occlusion prediction graphics processing method is utilized to predict which pixel values are eventually occluded before intermediate processing stages are performed on the pixel values. For example, occlusion results are predicted before the occlusion stage of a graphics pipeline. The occlusion prediction results are based upon an occlusion value received from later in a graphics processing pipeline (e.g., a raster operation stage). A convex polygonal prediction area can be established and a nearest vertex of the convex polygonal prediction area is selected for prediction analysis. Pixel values are removed or discarded from the pipeline based upon the occlusion prediction results and do not unnecessarily occupy processing resources. Removal of the pixel values from the pipeline includes pixels values associated with pixels in the convex polygonal prediction area. Pixel shading is performed on the remaining pixels.