One embodiment of the present invention provides a system that for facilitating assessment of collision between a primary principal and a non-primary principal for early warning. During operation, the system periodically performs the following operations: The system obtains a current observation of the primary principal and non-primary principal. The system then assesses one or more future states for the primary and non-primary principals, respectively, based on: the current observation of the primary and non-primary principals, a dynamics model of the primary principal, and a mental-state model of a person associated with the primary principal. The system further produces one or more results which indicate an assessment of collision between the primary and non-primary principals.