The present disclosure relates to systems, methods, and computer readable media for predicting expansion failures and implementing defragmentation instructions based on the predicted expansion failures and other signals. For example, systems disclosed herein may apply a failure prediction model to determine an expansion failure prediction associated with an estimated likelihood that deployment failures will occur on a node cluster. The systems disclosed herein may further generate defragmentation instructions indicating a severity level that a defragmentation engine may execute on a cluster level to prevent expansion failures while minimizing negative customer impacts. By uniquely generating defragmentation instructions for each node cluster, a cloud computing system can minimize expansion failures, increase resource capacity, reduce costs, and provide access to reliable services to customers.