Described embodiments provide systems and methods for a management service using virtual delivery agent measurement metrics to determine the probability of the virtual delivery agent successfully launching a connection to a virtual application and desktop service. A probability mass function is implemented to determine the correlation between the measurement metrics over time, and the probability mass function distribution is mapped to a states in a linear Markov chain such that the probability of the virtual delivery agent successfully launching a connection to a virtual application and desktop service is based on the current state of the Markov chain.