The invention provides an adaptive manifold probability distribution-based bearing fault diagnosis method, including constructing transferable domains and transfer tasks; converting a data sample in each transfer task into frequency domain data via Fourier transform, inputting the frequency domain data into a GFK algorithm model, and calculating a manifold feature representation matrix related to a bearing fault in each transfer task by using the GFK algorithm model; calculating a cosine distance between centers of a target domain and a source domain in each transfer task according to a manifold feature representation, and defining a target function of in-domain classifier learning; then solving the target function, to obtain a probability distribution matrix of the target domain; and selecting a label corresponding to the largest probability value corresponding to each data sample in the target domain from the probability distribution matrix as a predicted label of the data sample in the target domain.