A method includes identifying route data including a threshold arrival time for a route for an autonomous vehicle (AV) and calculating, based on the route data and a fuel-efficient speed value for each segment of the route, an estimated arrival time. Responsive to the estimated arrival time not meeting the threshold arrival time, the method includes identifying at least a subset of segments that each represent a candidate for speed increase, computing, for each segment in the subset and based on the fuel economy data, a correlation metric that indicates a correlation between a change in fuel economy and a change in speed for a corresponding segment in the subset, and increasing, for at least one segment from the subset and based on a respective correlation metric, a fuel-efficient speed value of the corresponding segment from the subset to provide a speed profile reflecting the increased fuel-efficient speed value.