An online gaming system for valuing new virtual items introduced into an online game. The system may comprise one or more processors configured to execute computer program modules. The system may include a virtual shop module configured to present offers to sell instances of probability item bundles including a first offer to sell instances of a first probability item bundle that includes a first primary item and a first set of secondary items for a price, and a second offer to sell instances of a second probability item bundle that includes a second primary item and a second set of secondary items for the same price. The system may include a price determination module configured to determine a value for the second primary virtual item based on comparative sales of the first probability item bundle and the second probability item bundle.