A method of operating an oven to cook a food product that includes changing a heat setting of a heating element of the oven, selecting a cook time for the food product in the oven, driving a heating element of the oven at a heat power input based on the heat setting, predicting a cooking ability of the oven by calculating an estimated temperature in the oven using a formula that is a function of a heat power input during a previous time period, and modifying the cook time to a modified cook time based on the estimated temperature that was calculated using the formula.