An aqueous dispersion is provided, the aqueous dispersion including: a microcapsule including a core and a shell that has a three-dimensionally crosslinked structure including (a) at least one selected from the group consisting of a urethane bond and a urea bond and (b) an anionic group and a nonionic group as hydrophilic groups, in which at least one of the shell or the core has a thermal-polymerizable group; and water, in which the nonionic group is a group (W) represented by Formula (W) below, in which, in Formula (W), RW1 represents an alkylene group that has 1 to 6 carbon atoms and that may be branched, RW2 represents an alkyl group that has 1 to 6 carbon atoms and that may be branched, nw represents an integer of 2 to 200, and * represents a linkage position.