Techniques for performing root cause analysis in dynamic software testing via probabilistic modeling are provided. In one example, a computer-implemented method includes initializing, by a system operatively coupled to a processor, a threshold value, a defined probability value, and a counter value. The computer-implemented method also includes, in response to determining, by the system, that a probability value assigned to a candidate payload of one or more candidate payloads exceeds the defined probability value, and in response to determining, by the system, that the counter value exceeds the threshold value: determining, by the system, that a match exists between the candidate payload and an input point based on an application of the candidate payload to the input point resulting in a defined condition, wherein the one or more candidate payloads are represented by population data accessed by the system.