Invention Grant
- Patent Title: Weight adjusted composite model for forecasting in anomalous environments
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Application No.: US14536817Application Date: 2014-11-10
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Publication No.: US10373068B2Publication Date: 2019-08-06
- Inventor: Aaron K. Baughman , James R. Kozloski , Cameron N. Mcavoy , Brian M. O'Connell
- Applicant: International Business Machines Corporation
- Applicant Address: US NY Armonk
- Assignee: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
- Current Assignee: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
- Current Assignee Address: US NY Armonk
- Agency: Garg Law Firm, PLLC
- Agent Rakesh Garg; Christopher K. McLane
- Main IPC: G06N7/02
- IPC: G06N7/02 ; G06N7/04 ; G06N7/06 ; G06N7/08 ; G06N20/00

Abstract:
A method, system, and computer program product for weight adjusted composite model for forecasting in anomalous environments are provided in the illustrative embodiments. A base forecasting model and a second forecasting model are combined to form a composite model, the base forecasting model configured to forecast an event in a time series, the second forecasting model configured to represent an anomalous portion of data in the time series. A mixing algorithm is combined with the composite model to adjust a set of weights associated with the composite model. Upon identifying a future period in which the event is to be forecasted, using the mixing algorithm, a subset of the set of weights is adjusted to from a weight adjusted composite model. The weight adjusted composite model is executed to forecast the event in the future period.
Public/Granted literature
- US20160132775A1 WEIGHT ADJUSTED COMPOSITE MODEL FOR FORECASTING IN ANOMALOUS ENVIRONMENTS Public/Granted day:2016-05-12
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