A system and a method for estimating readiness for passing an associated summative assessment includes, after receiving test results for at least one test, generating a score Cn for each concept tested on the test. Using the score, the system computes a probability of mastery p(Mn) of the at least one concept and associates the probability of mastery p(Mn) as a prior for updating the probability after receiving future test results. The system iteratively updates the probability of mastery p(Mn) of the at least one concept after each test using for the new test score and the prior.